{
  "title": "Pancis 1.0 \u2014 mixture-of-experts research architecture",
  "status": "RESEARCH_CANDIDATE_NOT_PROMOTED",
  "protocol": {
    "schema_version": "ensemble_methods_protocol_v8",
    "decision_status": "FROZEN_BEFORE_SCORING",
    "target": "exact_h1_next_calendar_month_rate_direction",
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        "selection_levels": [
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    "cycle_segments": {
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      "post_move": "cycle_active == 1 and cycle_holds_since_last_move == 0",
      "after_cut_short": "cycle_active == 1 and cycle_last_move_sign == -1 and cycle_holds_since_last_move in [1,2]",
      "after_cut_long": "cycle_active == 1 and cycle_last_move_sign == -1 and cycle_holds_since_last_move >= 3",
      "after_hike_short": "cycle_active == 1 and cycle_last_move_sign == 1 and cycle_holds_since_last_move in [1,2]",
      "after_hike_long": "cycle_active == 1 and cycle_last_move_sign == 1 and cycle_holds_since_last_move >= 3",
      "other": "otherwise"
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    "selection_clock": {
      "frequency": "annual",
      "rule": "For forecast year Y, learned methods may use only matched OOF component rows with target_date strictly before January 1 Y.",
      "same_year_outcomes_allowed": false,
      "future_year_outcomes_allowed": false,
      "component_predictions_are_out_of_fold": true
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    "evaluation": {
      "years": [
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        2011,
        2012,
        2013,
        2014,
        2015,
        2016,
        2017,
        2018,
        2019,
        2020,
        2021,
        2022,
        2023,
        2024,
        2025,
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      ],
      "recent_years": [
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      "primary_metric": "pooled_full_balanced_accuracy",
      "report_probability_quality": true,
      "report_equal_authority": true,
      "report_per_authority": true,
      "matched_denominator_required": true
    },
    "promotion": {
      "eligible": false,
      "reason": "All component OOF forecasts and 2010-2026 outcomes are reused development evidence; the comparison cannot promote a model without prospective results.",
      "canonical_inputs_changed": false,
      "canonical_predictions_changed": false
    },
    "inputs": {
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  },
  "sourceReferences": [
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      "path": "config/ensemble_methods_v8.json",
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      "sha256": "434483357407b0d15a154f222f04977d5ce56fd55e46222a6cfd2f7d3001eb1a"
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      "sha256": "8125bc3bad8cfe0bdbbb46298d4103e59be85cd7ff8cb396f9126cc76fa8cb60"
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  "evaluation": {
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    "authorities": 39,
    "moe_balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6836369459717394,
    "moe_balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.5905639060811475,
    "champion_balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6876124140452503,
    "champion_balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.5869486197072403,
    "evidence": "Reused development history; no promotion; H1 next-calendar-month target."
  }
}