RESEARCH / EVIDENCE BEFORE CONFIDENCE

Show the work.
Measure the uncertainty.

Compare the models, including rejected experiments and the limits of historical performance.

Historical evaluation cases7,583

39 historical monetary authorities

Best unpromoted routed candidate69.3%

Balanced direction accuracy · full history

Models promoted to production0

Research gates remain unmet

Development evidence, not an untouched final test. Historical periods were reused. Revised data and assumed publication lags limit point-in-time claims. These next-month research benchmarks do not validate the two-month forecasts shown in the country explorer. The frozen research comparator and latest live forecast selector are distinct systems.

PERFORMANCE / EXPLORE THE COVERAGE

Country, currency & authority

Historical next-month policy-rate direction, with the evidence behind each score.

Countries with mapped scores59 / 195Shared-authority results may repeat by country

Distinct scored authorities38Each authority counted once

Cases mapped to current authorities7,487May differ from the full historical model comparison

SearchCoverageSort

195 countries shown. Countries sharing an authority have the same underlying evaluation; their cases must not be added together.

Country	Currency / authority	Balanced accuracy	Cases	Cut / hold / hike cases	Evidence
AfghanistanAFCountry profile ↗	AFNAfghanistan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
AlbaniaALCountry profile ↗	ALLAlbania · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
AlgeriaDZCountry profile ↗	DZDAlgeria · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
AndorraADCountry profile ↗	EURAndorra · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
AngolaAOCountry profile ↗	AOAAngola · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Antigua and BarbudaAGCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
ArgentinaARCountry profile ↗	ARSArgentina · monetary authority	63.9%	185	42 / 106 / 37	View score details Direction recall Cut: 78.6% · Hold: 53.8% · Hike: 59.5% 95% interval: 50.6%–75.0% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.579 Log loss: 1.012 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 229.82 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework non rate stance target
ArmeniaAMCountry profile ↗	AMDArmenia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
AustraliaAUCountry profile ↗	AUDAustralia · monetary authority	64.5%	198	20 / 158 / 20	View score details Direction recall Cut: 35.0% · Hold: 73.4% · Hike: 85.0% 95% interval: 49.4%–77.1% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.407 Log loss: 0.659 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.76 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
AustriaATCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
AzerbaijanAZCountry profile ↗	AZNAzerbaijan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BahamasBSCountry profile ↗	BSD, USDBahamas · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BahrainBHCountry profile ↗	BHDBahrain · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BangladeshBDCountry profile ↗	BDTBangladesh · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BarbadosBBCountry profile ↗	BBDBarbados · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BelarusBYCountry profile ↗	BYNBelarus · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BelgiumBECountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
BelizeBZCountry profile ↗	BZDBelize · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BeninBJCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
BhutanBTCountry profile ↗	BTN, INRBhutan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BoliviaBOCountry profile ↗	BOBBolivia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Bosnia and HerzegovinaBACountry profile ↗	BAMBosnia and Herzegovina · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BotswanaBWCountry profile ↗	BWPBotswana · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
BrazilBRCountry profile ↗	BRLBrazil · monetary authority	69.5%	199	42 / 114 / 43	View score details Direction recall Cut: 92.9% · Hold: 27.2% · Hike: 88.4% 95% interval: 58.8%–76.2% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.621 Log loss: 0.971 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 24.50 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
BruneiBNCountry profile ↗	BND, SGDBrunei · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework non rate stance target
BulgariaBGCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
Burkina FasoBFCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
BurundiBICountry profile ↗	BIFBurundi · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
CambodiaKHCountry profile ↗	KHR, USDCambodia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
CameroonCMCountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
CanadaCACountry profile ↗	CADCanada · monetary authority	66.7%	199	12 / 169 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 58.3% · Hold: 75.1% · Hike: 66.7% 95% interval: 47.9%–81.8% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.389 Log loss: 0.636 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.78 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
Cape VerdeCVCountry profile ↗	CVECape Verde · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Central African RepublicCFCountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
ChadTDCountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
ChileCLCountry profile ↗	CLPChile · monetary authority	71.2%	199	31 / 141 / 27	View score details Direction recall Cut: 77.4% · Hold: 51.1% · Hike: 85.2% 95% interval: 56.9%–80.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.554 Log loss: 0.858 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 14.57 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
ChinaCNCountry profile ↗	CNYChina · monetary authority	67.0%	199	21 / 173 / 5	View score details Direction recall Cut: 42.9% · Hold: 78.0% · Hike: 80.0% 95% interval: 44.4%–81.1% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.412 Log loss: 0.678 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 2.42 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
ColombiaCOCountry profile ↗	COPColombia · monetary authority	73.2%	198	34 / 127 / 37	View score details Direction recall Cut: 88.2% · Hold: 44.9% · Hike: 86.5% 95% interval: 60.6%–81.0% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.598 Log loss: 0.929 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 16.92 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
ComorosKMCountry profile ↗	KMFComoros · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
CongoCGCountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
Costa RicaCRCountry profile ↗	CRCCosta Rica · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
CroatiaHRCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
CubaCUCountry profile ↗	CUC, CUPCuba · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
CyprusCYCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
CzechiaCZCountry profile ↗	CZKCzechia · monetary authority	66.3%	199	16 / 164 / 19	View score details Direction recall Cut: 62.5% · Hold: 73.2% · Hike: 63.2% 95% interval: 48.5%–80.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.411 Log loss: 0.683 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.86 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
DenmarkDKCountry profile ↗	DKKDenmark · monetary authority	61.7%	199	22 / 158 / 19	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 77.2% · Hike: 57.9% 95% interval: 45.7%–76.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.388 Log loss: 0.671 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.25 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework non rate stance target
DjiboutiDJCountry profile ↗	DJFDjibouti · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
DominicaDMCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
Dominican RepublicDOCountry profile ↗	DOPDominican Republic · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
DR CongoCDCountry profile ↗	CDFDR Congo · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
EcuadorECCountry profile ↗	USDEcuador · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
EgyptEGCountry profile ↗	EGPEgypt · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
El SalvadorSVCountry profile ↗	USDEl Salvador · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
Equatorial GuineaGQCountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
EritreaERCountry profile ↗	ERNEritrea · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
EstoniaEECountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
EswatiniSZCountry profile ↗	SZL, ZAREswatini · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
EthiopiaETCountry profile ↗	ETBEthiopia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
FijiFJCountry profile ↗	FJDFiji · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
FinlandFICountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
FranceFRCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
GabonGACountry profile ↗	XAFXAF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
GambiaGMCountry profile ↗	GMDGambia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
GeorgiaGECountry profile ↗	GELGeorgia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
GermanyDECountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
GhanaGHCountry profile ↗	GHSGhana · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
GreeceGRCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
GrenadaGDCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
GuatemalaGTCountry profile ↗	GTQGuatemala · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
GuineaGNCountry profile ↗	GNFGuinea · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Guinea-BissauGWCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
GuyanaGYCountry profile ↗	GYDGuyana · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
HaitiHTCountry profile ↗	HTGHaiti · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
HondurasHNCountry profile ↗	HNLHonduras · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
HungaryHUCountry profile ↗	HUFHungary · monetary authority	79.2%	198	50 / 128 / 20	View score details Direction recall Cut: 80.0% · Hold: 72.7% · Hike: 85.0% 95% interval: 65.1%–87.7% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.409 Log loss: 0.707 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 14.42 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
IcelandISCountry profile ↗	ISKIceland · monetary authority	62.7%	199	31 / 141 / 27	View score details Direction recall Cut: 74.2% · Hold: 36.2% · Hike: 77.8% 95% interval: 48.2%–73.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.645 Log loss: 0.959 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 12.88 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
IndiaINCountry profile ↗	INRIndia · monetary authority	60.9%	197	22 / 152 / 23	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 50.0% · Hike: 82.6% 95% interval: 45.2%–73.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.609 Log loss: 0.909 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.36 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
IndonesiaIDCountry profile ↗	IDRIndonesia · monetary authority	59.9%	197	29 / 146 / 22	View score details Direction recall Cut: 62.1% · Hold: 54.1% · Hike: 63.6% 95% interval: 44.3%–73.2% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.578 Log loss: 0.896 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 8.25 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
IranIRCountry profile ↗	IRRIran · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
IraqIQCountry profile ↗	IQDIraq · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
IrelandIECountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
IsraelILCountry profile ↗	ILSIsrael · monetary authority	60.9%	198	18 / 162 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 38.9% · Hold: 66.0% · Hike: 77.8% 95% interval: 44.5%–75.1% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.418 Log loss: 0.658 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.73 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
ItalyITCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
Ivory CoastCICountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
JamaicaJMCountry profile ↗	JMDJamaica · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
JapanJPCountry profile ↗	JPYJapan · monetary authority	31.8%	158	1 / 152 / 5	View score details Direction recall Cut: 0.0% · Hold: 95.4% · Hike: 0.0% 95% interval: 30.3%–73.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.148 Log loss: 0.300 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 0.73 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
JordanJOCountry profile ↗	JODJordan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
KazakhstanKZCountry profile ↗	KZTKazakhstan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
KenyaKECountry profile ↗	KESKenya · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
KiribatiKICountry profile ↗	AUD, KIDKiribati · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
KuwaitKWCountry profile ↗	KWDKuwait · monetary authority	52.8%	198	7 / 178 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 14.3% · Hold: 82.6% · Hike: 61.5% 95% interval: 38.1%–73.7% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.355 Log loss: 0.600 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 3.54 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
KyrgyzstanKGCountry profile ↗	KGSKyrgyzstan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LaosLACountry profile ↗	LAKLaos · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LatviaLVCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
LebanonLBCountry profile ↗	LBPLebanon · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LesothoLSCountry profile ↗	LSL, ZARLesotho · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LiberiaLRCountry profile ↗	LRDLiberia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LibyaLYCountry profile ↗	LYDLibya · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
LiechtensteinLICountry profile ↗	CHFSwitzerland · monetary authority	76.7%	199	9 / 185 / 5	View score details Direction recall Cut: 55.6% · Hold: 94.6% · Hike: 80.0% 95% interval: 51.5%–91.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.145 Log loss: 0.284 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 2.70 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
LithuaniaLTCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
LuxembourgLUCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
MadagascarMGCountry profile ↗	MGAMadagascar · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MalawiMWCountry profile ↗	MWKMalawi · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MalaysiaMYCountry profile ↗	MYRMalaysia · monetary authority	43.1%	198	7 / 180 / 11	View score details Direction recall Cut: 0.0% · Hold: 83.9% · Hike: 45.5% 95% interval: 33.0%–65.3% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.350 Log loss: 0.591 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 2.40 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
MaldivesMVCountry profile ↗	MVRMaldives · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MaliMLCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
MaltaMTCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
Marshall IslandsMHCountry profile ↗	USDMarshall Islands · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
MauritaniaMRCountry profile ↗	MRUMauritania · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MauritiusMUCountry profile ↗	MURMauritius · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MexicoMXCountry profile ↗	MXNMexico · monetary authority	71.6%	199	31 / 138 / 30	View score details Direction recall Cut: 87.1% · Hold: 47.8% · Hike: 80.0% 95% interval: 57.8%–80.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.536 Log loss: 0.828 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 11.56 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
MicronesiaFMCountry profile ↗	UnknownMicronesia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
MoldovaMDCountry profile ↗	MDLMoldova · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MonacoMCCountry profile ↗	EURMonaco · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
MongoliaMNCountry profile ↗	MNTMongolia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MontenegroMECountry profile ↗	EURMontenegro · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
MoroccoMACountry profile ↗	MADMorocco · monetary authority	57.8%	196	9 / 184 / 3	View score details Direction recall Cut: 11.1% · Hold: 95.7% · Hike: 66.7% 95% interval: 38.1%–78.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.197 Log loss: 0.390 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 2.04 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
MozambiqueMZCountry profile ↗	MZNMozambique · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
MyanmarMMCountry profile ↗	MMKMyanmar · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
NamibiaNACountry profile ↗	NAD, ZARNamibia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
NauruNRCountry profile ↗	AUDNauru · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
NepalNPCountry profile ↗	NPRNepal · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
NetherlandsNLCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
New ZealandNZCountry profile ↗	NZDNew Zealand · monetary authority	68.7%	198	20 / 159 / 19	View score details Direction recall Cut: 55.0% · Hold: 77.4% · Hike: 73.7% 95% interval: 51.9%–81.8% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.406 Log loss: 0.667 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.07 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
NicaraguaNICountry profile ↗	NIONicaragua · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
NigerNECountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
NigeriaNGCountry profile ↗	NGNNigeria · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
North KoreaKPCountry profile ↗	KPWNorth Korea · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
North MacedoniaMKCountry profile ↗	MKDNorth Macedonia · monetary authority	65.0%	199	30 / 151 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 72.8% · Hike: 72.2% 95% interval: 49.2%–77.9% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.460 Log loss: 0.754 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 8.03 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
NorwayNOCountry profile ↗	NOKNorway · monetary authority	51.7%	199	10 / 168 / 21	View score details Direction recall Cut: 10.0% · Hold: 73.8% · Hike: 71.4% 95% interval: 39.5%–68.8% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.429 Log loss: 0.682 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.03 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
OmanOMCountry profile ↗	OMROman · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
PakistanPKCountry profile ↗	PKRPakistan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
PalauPWCountry profile ↗	USDPalau · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
PalestinePSCountry profile ↗	EGP, ILS, JODPalestine · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
PanamaPACountry profile ↗	PAB, USDPanama · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
Papua New GuineaPGCountry profile ↗	PGKPapua New Guinea · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
ParaguayPYCountry profile ↗	PYGParaguay · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
PeruPECountry profile ↗	PENPeru · monetary authority	72.0%	199	28 / 139 / 32	View score details Direction recall Cut: 67.9% · Hold: 66.9% · Hike: 81.3% 95% interval: 57.6%–82.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.467 Log loss: 0.741 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 10.05 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
PhilippinesPHCountry profile ↗	PHPPhilippines · monetary authority	62.4%	199	22 / 155 / 22	View score details Direction recall Cut: 59.1% · Hold: 64.5% · Hike: 63.6% 95% interval: 46.1%–76.2% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.477 Log loss: 0.757 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.54 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
PolandPLCountry profile ↗	PLNPoland · monetary authority	74.8%	199	22 / 161 / 16	View score details Direction recall Cut: 63.6% · Hold: 79.5% · Hike: 81.3% 95% interval: 57.5%–86.2% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.349 Log loss: 0.603 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.81 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
PortugalPTCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
QatarQACountry profile ↗	QARQatar · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
RomaniaROCountry profile ↗	RONRomania · monetary authority	76.6%	199	26 / 159 / 14	View score details Direction recall Cut: 76.9% · Hold: 67.3% · Hike: 85.7% 95% interval: 59.2%–86.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.460 Log loss: 0.732 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.04 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
RussiaRUCountry profile ↗	RUBRussia · monetary authority	62.4%	199	46 / 126 / 27	View score details Direction recall Cut: 91.3% · Hold: 25.4% · Hike: 70.4% 95% interval: 49.9%–71.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.681 Log loss: 1.057 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 39.82 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
RwandaRWCountry profile ↗	RWFRwanda · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Saint Kitts and NevisKNCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
Saint LuciaLCCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesVCCountry profile ↗	XCDXCD	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
SamoaWSCountry profile ↗	WSTSamoa · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
San MarinoSMCountry profile ↗	EURSan Marino · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
São Tomé and PríncipeSTCountry profile ↗	STNSão Tomé and Príncipe · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Saudi ArabiaSACountry profile ↗	SARSaudi Arabia · monetary authority	71.9%	198	10 / 173 / 15	View score details Direction recall Cut: 60.0% · Hold: 75.7% · Hike: 80.0% 95% interval: 51.6%–85.9% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.311 Log loss: 0.522 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.92 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
SenegalSNCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
SerbiaRSCountry profile ↗	RSDSerbia · monetary authority	71.3%	199	41 / 127 / 31	View score details Direction recall Cut: 70.7% · Hold: 52.8% · Hike: 90.3% 95% interval: 58.2%–80.1% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.527 Log loss: 0.834 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 14.20 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
SeychellesSCCountry profile ↗	SCRSeychelles · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Sierra LeoneSLCountry profile ↗	SLESierra Leone · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SingaporeSGCountry profile ↗	SGDSingapore · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework non rate stance target
SlovakiaSKCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
SloveniaSICountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
Solomon IslandsSBCountry profile ↗	SBDSolomon Islands · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SomaliaSOCountry profile ↗	SOSSomalia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
South AfricaZACountry profile ↗	ZARSouth Africa · monetary authority	57.6%	198	18 / 162 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 55.6% · Hold: 56.2% · Hike: 61.1% 95% interval: 40.3%–72.9% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.535 Log loss: 0.828 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 7.32 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
South KoreaKRCountry profile ↗	KRWSouth Korea · monetary authority	54.5%	198	16 / 164 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 25.0% · Hold: 72.0% · Hike: 66.7% 95% interval: 39.5%–70.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.453 Log loss: 0.711 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.67 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
South SudanSSCountry profile ↗	SSPSouth Sudan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SpainESCountry profile ↗	EUREuropean Central Bank	70.7%	199	16 / 170 / 13	View score details Direction recall Cut: 50.0% · Hold: 85.3% · Hike: 76.9% 95% interval: 52.3%–84.6% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.281 Log loss: 0.505 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.65 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework shared authority target
Sri LankaLKCountry profile ↗	LKRSri Lanka · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SudanSDCountry profile ↗	SDGSudan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SurinameSRCountry profile ↗	SRDSuriname · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
SwedenSECountry profile ↗	SEKSweden · monetary authority	62.9%	199	19 / 163 / 17	View score details Direction recall Cut: 42.1% · Hold: 76.1% · Hike: 70.6% 95% interval: 46.3%–77.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.398 Log loss: 0.635 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.53 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
SwitzerlandCHCountry profile ↗	CHFSwitzerland · monetary authority	76.7%	199	9 / 185 / 5	View score details Direction recall Cut: 55.6% · Hold: 94.6% · Hike: 80.0% 95% interval: 51.5%–91.5% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.145 Log loss: 0.284 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 2.70 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
SyriaSYCountry profile ↗	SYPSyria · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
TajikistanTJCountry profile ↗	TJSTajikistan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
TanzaniaTZCountry profile ↗	TZSTanzania · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
ThailandTHCountry profile ↗	THBThailand · monetary authority	58.8%	198	19 / 161 / 18	View score details Direction recall Cut: 10.5% · Hold: 77.0% · Hike: 88.9% 95% interval: 46.7%–70.4% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.409 Log loss: 0.661 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.67 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
Timor-LesteTLCountry profile ↗	USDTimor-Leste · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
TogoTGCountry profile ↗	XOFXOF	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework shared authority target
TongaTOCountry profile ↗	TOPTonga · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Trinidad and TobagoTTCountry profile ↗	TTDTrinidad and Tobago · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
TunisiaTNCountry profile ↗	TNDTunisia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
TürkiyeTRCountry profile ↗	TRYTürkiye · monetary authority	61.9%	198	37 / 142 / 19	View score details Direction recall Cut: 81.1% · Hold: 41.5% · Hike: 63.2% 95% interval: 46.9%–73.7% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.650 Log loss: 1.035 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 63.64 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
TurkmenistanTMCountry profile ↗	TMTTurkmenistan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
TuvaluTVCountry profile ↗	AUD, TVDTuvalu · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
UgandaUGCountry profile ↗	UGXUganda · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
UkraineUACountry profile ↗	UAHUkraine · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
United Arab EmiratesAECountry profile ↗	AEDUnited Arab Emirates · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
United KingdomGBCountry profile ↗	GBPUnited Kingdom · monetary authority	74.5%	198	8 / 174 / 16	View score details Direction recall Cut: 62.5% · Hold: 79.9% · Hike: 81.3% 95% interval: 53.6%–88.3% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.316 Log loss: 0.525 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 4.07 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
United StatesUSCountry profile ↗	USDUnited States · monetary authority	77.9%	199	10 / 169 / 20	View score details Direction recall Cut: 80.0% · Hold: 68.6% · Hike: 85.0% 95% interval: 58.1%–88.1% Mean of classwise Wilson intervals; not a future-performance guarantee. Brier score: 0.368 Log loss: 0.590 Raw, uncalibrated score diagnostics; lower is better. Model: recent own calendar ppi missingness Separate persistence baseline Zero-change rate MAE: 5.78 bp. This is not the direction model’s magnitude accuracy. Framework scalar policy rate target
UruguayUYCountry profile ↗	UYUUruguay · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
UzbekistanUZCountry profile ↗	UZSUzbekistan · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
VanuatuVUCountry profile ↗	VUVVanuatu · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
Vatican CityVACountry profile ↗	EURVatican City · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework pass through target
VenezuelaVECountry profile ↗	VESVenezuela · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
VietnamVNCountry profile ↗	VNDVietnam · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
YemenYECountry profile ↗	YERYemen · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
ZambiaZMCountry profile ↗	ZMWZambia · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable
ZimbabweZWCountry profile ↗	BWP, CNY, EUR, GBP, INR, JPY, USD, ZAR, ZWBZimbabwe · monetary authority	—	—	—	View coverage No historical score is available for this country. Missing evidence is not zero accuracy. Pass-through, non-rate and unavailable frameworks retain their coverage status. Framework unavailable

Source: current country evidence ledger and frozen H1 research champion. Registry membership and instrument history are not fully verified. Currency membership is the supplied snapshot mapping, not a historical reconstruction. Some historical authorities in the headline benchmark have no current-country mapping.

Model comparison

Download full scorecard ↗

Model / role	Full history	Recent history	Decision
Weak authority past only expert routerBest unpromoted routed candidate	69.3%	60.4%	Research only · view assessment Research only probability regression recent minimum gain full ci and target noninferiority gates failed development reused { "model": "weak_authority_past_only_expert_router", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6927434422666074, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.6043201689753414, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.6602396628114757, "eligible_authorities": 37, "authorities_at_or_above_80_percent": 1, "role": "best_unpromoted_routed_candidate", "promotion_status": "research_only_probability_regression_recent_minimum_gain_full_ci_and_target_noninferiority_gates_failed_development_reused", "comparison_to_prior_best": { "balanced_accuracy_full_delta": 0.0022882434920435957, "balanced_accuracy_recent_delta": 0.0008841732979664174, "full_authority_year_bootstrap_ci": [ -0.0006269442873534749, 0.0055126275350812805 ], "recent_authority_year_bootstrap_ci": [ -0.006100671524058583, 0.008323485290614038 ], "prior_best_brier": 0.4399008726375279, "candidate_brier": 0.4421995441316846, "prior_best_log_loss": 0.7102188627762062, "candidate_log_loss": 0.7130316945179829, "full_target_authorities_improved_worsened_unchanged": [ 6, 1, 1 ], "worsened_full_authority": "ISO:NO" }, "evidence": { "report_path": "reports/weak_authority_ensemble_threshold_v8/REPORT.md", "report_sha256": "623a00bcbd195072f41151e6fc0756c9092aed0162c4407a58b0291b1080822a", "receipt_path": "reports/weak_authority_ensemble_threshold_v8/receipt.json", "receipt_sha256": "20fb9755473e66f8db6b203fa68119b8c71d5692fc39438b0427a93cdfbd985b" } }
All authority regularized hard best expertRejected higher full only candidate	69.3%	59.1%	Research only · view assessment Rejected recent equal authority per authority and confidence gates failed development reused { "model": "all_authority_regularized_hard_best_expert", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.692864413190469, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.5913891344925828, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.6594825147712872, "eligible_authorities": 37, "role": "rejected_higher_full_only_candidate", "promotion_status": "rejected_recent_equal_authority_per_authority_and_confidence_gates_failed_development_reused", "comparison_to_current_best": { "balanced_accuracy_full_delta": 0.00012097092386154085, "balanced_accuracy_recent_delta": -0.012931034482758563, "full_authority_year_bootstrap_ci": [ -0.0030994340209965134, 0.0031142644877198257 ], "recent_authority_year_bootstrap_ci": [ -0.03374581152099179, 0.004175895311116627 ], "current_best_brier": 0.4421995441316846, "candidate_brier": 0.44182321500390553, "current_best_log_loss": 0.7130316945179829, "candidate_log_loss": 0.7122444691214165, "full_authorities_improved_worsened_unchanged": [ 9, 11, 19 ] }, "evidence": { "report_path": "reports/all_authority_regularized_expert_router_v8/REPORT.md", "report_sha256": "392db1b9ab3798ffd08968785778a633259ce71ff8633b544fee2fc9ff94fa5b", "receipt_path": "reports/all_authority_regularized_expert_router_v8/receipt.json", "receipt_sha256": "068aff9d5b8e8d657807705bd6349b8718e932b4853410e77acb5a65193c5783" } }
Conditional hurdle current router conditional benchmark partial hurdle 010Rejected conditional hurdle candidate	69.2%	61.0%	Research only · view assessment Rejected full direction and class recall gates failed despite probability and recent improvement { "model": "conditional_hurdle__current_router_conditional_benchmark__partial_hurdle_010", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6920284023230933, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.6101164161508988, "role": "rejected_conditional_hurdle_candidate", "promotion_status": "rejected_full_direction_and_class_recall_gates_failed_despite_probability_and_recent_improvement", "comparison_to_current_best": { "balanced_accuracy_full_delta": -0.0007150399435141841, "balanced_accuracy_recent_delta": 0.00579624717555749, "full_authority_year_bootstrap_ci": [ -0.0044685875022171225, 0.0027028184642471616 ], "current_best_brier": 0.4421995441316846, "candidate_brier": 0.419165738139426, "current_best_log_loss": 0.7130316945179829, "candidate_log_loss": 0.6783207625736977, "candidate_class_recall_cut_hold_hike": [ 0.6269487750556793, 0.7048039382108301, 0.7443324937027708 ] }, "evidence": { "report_path": "reports/conditional_action_direction_v8/REPORT.md", "report_sha256": "fcf37068c784972449118310f47aac42b05706168f8e2383984a43c76730446c", "receipt_path": "reports/conditional_action_direction_v8/receipt.json", "receipt_sha256": "9945efc6c87f6b199bd5852b7e51f080d46bbf25239c211ecb204cf9be15f92b" } }
Chronological probability stacker nested fallbackRejected probability stacker exact fallback	69.3%	60.4%	Research only · view assessment Rejected all fixed stacks lower direction nested selector retained current router all years { "model": "chronological_probability_stacker_nested_fallback", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6927434422666074, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.6043201689753414, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.6602396628114757, "eligible_authorities": 37, "authorities_at_or_above_80_percent": 1, "role": "rejected_probability_stacker_exact_fallback", "promotion_status": "rejected_all_fixed_stacks_lower_direction_nested_selector_retained_current_router_all_years", "fixed_stack_tradeoff": { "best_direction_variant": "fixed_stack_c0010_a025", "best_direction_balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6885137251278252, "best_direction_brier": 0.41508519129626364, "best_direction_log_loss": 0.6734282078722313, "lowest_brier_variant": "fixed_stack_c0100_a100", "lowest_brier_balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6600666081875913, "lowest_brier": 0.35700475676646504, "lowest_brier_log_loss": 0.5909846209601433 }, "evidence": { "report_path": "reports/chronological_probability_stacker_v8/REPORT.md", "report_sha256": "199c2c6d45cbea64021fb343bb171d58251abf35220e0f779c5f76190cae4759", "receipt_path": "reports/chronological_probability_stacker_v8/receipt.json", "receipt_sha256": "3383ddedb068664db8cf39688aabd3223fdd7003de9d114d8d05a8cea650bc84" } }
Policy event boj history prior only hard routerPrior best unpromoted routed candidate	69.0%	60.3%	Research only · view assessment Positive ci vs canonical but not secure vs previous best and reuses development { "model": "policy_event_boj_history_prior_only_hard_router", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.6904551987745638, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.6034359956773749, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.6546457426877516, "eligible_authorities": 37, "authorities_at_or_above_80_percent": 1, "role": "prior_best_unpromoted_routed_candidate", "promotion_status": "positive_ci_vs_canonical_but_not_secure_vs_previous_best_and_reuses_development" }
Policy event prior only hard routerPrior unpromoted routed candidate	68.8%	59.7%	Research only · view assessment Failed frozen minimum gain and confidence gates { "model": "policy_event_prior_only_hard_router", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.68840458, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.59664751, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.65355742, "eligible_authorities": 37, "authorities_at_or_above_80_percent": 1, "role": "prior_unpromoted_routed_candidate", "promotion_status": "failed_frozen_minimum_gain_and_confidence_gates" }
Chronological model zoo stackUnpromoted ensemble candidate	68.8%	58.9%	Research only · view assessment Confidence interval crosses zero { "model": "chronological_model_zoo_stack", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.68792022, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.58886433, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.651486, "eligible_authorities": 37, "authorities_at_or_above_80_percent": 0, "role": "unpromoted_ensemble_candidate", "promotion_status": "confidence_interval_crosses_zero" }
Ppi availability extensionResearch champion	68.8%	58.7%	Research only · view assessment Canonical research comparator { "model": "ppi_availability_extension", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.68761241, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.58694862, "equal_authority_balanced_accuracy_full_min_5_each_class": 0.65104, "eligible_authorities": 37, "role": "research_champion", "promotion_status": "canonical_research_comparator" }
Policy event full featuresRejected full history candidate	68.4%	60.3%	Research only · view assessment Full balanced accuracy decreased { "model": "policy_event_full_features", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.68350438, "balanced_accuracy_recent": 0.60344828, "role": "rejected_full_history_candidate", "promotion_status": "full_balanced_accuracy_decreased" }
Original strong baselineBaseline	68.3%	—	Research only · view assessment Baseline { "model": "original_strong_baseline", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.683204, "role": "baseline" }
Monthly retrainingRejected capacity tweak	68.1%	—	Research only · view assessment Rejected capacity tweak { "model": "monthly_retraining", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.681276, "role": "rejected_capacity_tweak" }
Peer rate breadthRejected	67.8%	—	Research only · view assessment Rejected { "model": "peer_rate_breadth", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.67779, "role": "rejected" }
Larger treesRejected	67.7%	—	Research only · view assessment Rejected { "model": "larger_trees", "balanced_accuracy_full": 0.676762, "role": "rejected" }

Balanced accuracy averages recall for cuts, holds and hikes. Higher full-history accuracy alone is insufficient: recent performance, probability quality, uncertainty and authority-specific regressions also matter. Shared monetary authorities are not independent country cases.

Show the work.Measure the uncertainty.

Country, currency & authority

Model comparison

Show the work.
Measure the uncertainty.